The European Union Versus Russia : Evaluating Attractiveness of Inter-State Cooperation in the Post-Soviet Space

Russia's attempts to create a single economic space with other post-Soviet states proceed against the background of these states' engagement with other regional entities, European Union in particular. Liberal scholars argue for mutual complementarity of diverse regional integration arrangements. Other disagree, seeing the world as divided in various civilization "camps" defined by their pro-western or non-western orientations. Using a formal gravity model, the article evaluates comparative attractiveness of the European Union versus Russia as potential centers and gravity poles for regional cooperation and integration of the post-Soviet states. It concludes that for the next five to ten years, Russia will remain an absolute attractor for most members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Ukraine, in spite of its high level of attraction to the EU, is better off as a member of the Single Economic Space (SES) with Russia. In the longer run, the prospects of integration with the EU depend on the success of the SES, since none of its members stand better chances of integrating with Europe than the SES as a whole