The evolution of markets under entry and standards regulation - The case of a global mobile telecommunications

We analyze the effect of government policies on the evolution of global mobile telecommunications markets during 1981-1997. We obtain the following findings. (i) Countries that issue first licenses at later dates converge relatively slowly to early moving countries. (ii) The introduction of competition has a significant impact on the diffusion, especially after capacity expanded (digital phase). (iii) The timing at which second licenses are issued is important. Sequential entry is preceded by pre-emptive behavior and has a stronger impact than simultaneous entry. (iv) For the analogue technology, setting a single technological standard speeds up the diffusion. The results can be explained by structural characteristics of the industry, such as capacity constraints, consumer switching costs and network externalities.