The Evolution of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japan:A Re-evaluation Based on Time-Varying Parameter VARs

This paper re-examines the evolution over time of influences of the Japanese exchange rate on its exports, imports, and domestic prices. By employing the time varying parameter VAR (vector autoregression) method, this study reveals the timings of the pass-through rates changed and by how much. The sample period is January 1980 through January 2010. It shows that the pass-through rates on both import and domestic prices trended down throughout much the sample period. While the pass-through rate on domestic prices experienced a sharp decline during the 1980s and continued to decline gradually afterwards, the rate on import prices went through the second sharp decline in the latter half of the 1990s. In contrast, the pass-through rate on export prices increased, especially during the 1980s.