The Freedom of Constraint : An Agent-Based Game Theoretic Model of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED)

Combining system dynamics and agent based modeling approach (Abdollahian et al 2013), I formalize a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED). First, I validate Feng et al (2'007 system dynamics model with the latest relative political capacity measurement developed by Kugler and Tammen (2012). Second, I fuse these endogenous attributes with non-cooperative game theory in an agent based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Third, I connect macro and micro level with policy levers of political extraction and allocation by merging system dynamics and agent based components. The multilevel architecture incorporates endogenously derived individual attribute changes from macro POFED theory and interactive, agent behavioral transactions that either increase or decrease individuals and ultimately societal productivity, stability and wealth. I explore the modelâ s behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths towards economic development and political stability. Result shows the nonlinear relationship among economic and political variables, as well as different development patterns produced by different combinations of economic, social, and political shocks. Most governmentâ s goals are to stay in power and increase political support, so they keep a high level of political stability and enhance economic growth. This research adds value to the field as it connects macro-micro levels within a single framework, and adds the interactive feedback effects of individual socio-economic transactions from a game theoretic approach