The energy industry is transforming. Advances in energy generation and storage, digital technologies and platforms, robotics, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles are driving tomorrow’s innovations, and enabling new business models to emerge. Unlike previous industrial revolutions, the digital revolution has no clear boundaries, and its development is likely to be ongoing, ubiquitous and rapid. In addition, accelerated adoption of new technologies and smart devices, especially among the tech-savvy digital natives, is increasingly empowering energy consumers of tomorrow to become ‘prosumers’ who generate as well as consume energy. The emergence of new peer-to-peer (P2P) business models across many industries, coupled with increasing interest by Australians in the sharing economy, could see the P2P business model extend to the energy industry of the future. Over the next decade, new P2P energy trading platforms may emerge to allow prosumers to trade their excess electricity with consumers who want to purchase affordable renewable energy. However, how will P2P energy trading be integrated into the existing energy system? Will P2P energy trading provide a secure, reliable and cost-effective mechanism for monetising DER? This report opens with the outcomes of a horizon scan of interconnected social, economic, geopolitical, technological and environmental trends driving transformation across the energy industry. Building on the analysed trends, the second part of the report presents future narratives describing how P2P energy trading may operate in 2030. With these insights, the government, energy and property industries, and consumers will be able to better navigate the uncertainties around P2P energy trading, and maximise the potential opportunities that this new energy system could bring over the next decade.
