The Gulf monarchies beyond the Arab spring : changes and challenges

Interest in the Gulf had further grown during the Arab Spring, when many questions were raised about the impact on the political sustainability of the authoritarian Gulf monarchies of the revolutionary wave that swept over the Arab world. Attention on the Gulf countries increased even more in the aftermath of the uprising, when it became apparent that they had emerged as powerful regional players. In the face of regional challenges, they started to change their longstanding foreign policy patterns and become more assertive in the numerous crises of the MENA region and more willing to shape the political transition in many countries. While there was consensus on the fact that the Gulf region had become an increasingly important actor, many questions about the future of these monarchies and their role in the global and regional arenas were left unanswered. Is the Gulf economic model sustainable in times of low oil prices? And what would the impact be of diminishing growth on political stability? How do structural factors such as demography and continuing dependence on oil and gas revenues limit the Gulf countries' capacity to maintain sustained economic growth? What does the pivot towards Asia entail for the security of Gulf countries? How does the geo-political confrontation with Iran shape the deepening sectarianism? How successful can they be at insulating themselves from instability and projecting their interests in the Middle East? How united are the Gulf countries in their perceptions of and reactions against the external Iranian threat? What are the bases and consequences of the Gulf countries' new interventionism?