The impact of EC-92 on developing countries'trade : a dissenting view

Most benefits of the European Community (EC-92) program will probably not come from marginal changes in trade flows. Those changes are important to European policymakers, but are of remote interest to developing countries. The main threats to developing countries are the diversion of investment funds to EC countries and continued external barriers, especially nontariff barriers. The EC expects higher growth and lower prices as a result of EC-92. The net effect on developing countries of the removal of internal trade barriers depends on the country's income and price elasticities with the EC. Current estimates suggest the effect will be small. If new external barriers emerge, or if EC-wide barriers replace national barriers, EC firms may collaborate more with large US or Japanese firms. None of these developments will improve developing countries'trade in manufactures and services. Investment in EC countries may increase to meet the extra demand, growth, or trade diversion resulting from EC-92. This could lead to increased investments in developing countries but given heavy indebtedness in developing countries, is more likely to divert investment funds, thus limiting their future production and growth. Technical standards in EC-92 may also be tougher than national standards in member countries, which could hurt developing country exporters. Is"Fortress Europe"likely? The EC Commission says no, but the Community's record is not good.