The Impact of Romania's Accession to the EU. An Analysis of the Effects of Regional Development Policy Through a Multi-regional I-O Model

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of labour income and employment in Romania which will be produced by rural development and structural policies defined in the proposed 2007-09 financial package related to accession to the EU. The methodology used is based on a multi-regional I-O model derived from a three-stage estimation procedure. The main results show that accession to the EU will lead to great positive effects in Romania, which vary according to the region considered. Regarding these, the Southern and the North-Eastern regions are those in which benefits tend to be concentrated. In all the regions, policy seems to be able to absorb unemployment. Finally, policy gives the impression of reducing regional and sectoral income disparities, leading to a more balanced development. On the contrary, in terms of employment, policy increases divergences, albeit, at a regional level, there is a general tendency towards a reduction of sectoral disparities.