The Impact of an Urban Growth Boundary on Land Development in Knox County, Tennessee: A Comparison of Two-Stage Probit Least Squares and Multilayer Neural Network Models

The impact of an urban growth boundary (UGB) on land development in Knox County, TN is estimated via two-stage probit and neural-network models. The insignificance of UGB variable in the two-stage probit model and more visible development patterns in the western part of Knoxville and the neighboring town of Farragut during the post-UGB period in both models suggest that the UGB has not curtailed urban sprawl. Although the network model is found to be a viable alternative to more conventional discrete choice approach for improving the predictability of land development, it is at the cost of evaluating marginal effects.