The implications for OECD regions of the war in Ukraine : An initial analysis

Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine has sown catastrophe in the country; destroying lives, homes, and infrastructure. The war has also created profound and asymmetric economic and social impacts across the world, including many that are likely to be long lasting. Managing the humanitarian crisis, and the flow of refugees, is an immediate priority. Yet, governments at all levels are also grappling with the implications of further disruptions to supply chains and travel, and rising prices, which are jeopardising efforts to rebuild their economies after COVID-19. Because these impacts will not be felt equally within OECD countries, they have important implications for regional development policies – not least in the wake of the spatial challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper presents an early assessment of the impact of the war in Ukraine across OECD regions looking at several dimensions including refugee flows, energy price increase, disruption of trade flows and GVCs, and tourism.