The interiorization of Brazilian violence, policing, and economic growth

Brazilian homicide rates are among the highest in the world, inclusive of actual war zones. However, the character of Brazil's violence is changing. Recent analyses highlight a trend of dispersion of violence such that homicide rates in urban areas, traditionally the most violent places, have stagnated and declined while smaller cities and rural areas experienced a marked increase. An incipient explanation is that this trend is related to greater economic dynamism in the smaller cities, unaccompanied by increased policing. This article's empirical analysis uses locational Hoover indexes to express the dispersions of violence and economic activity, and also generates a proxy to measure the geographic concentration of police forces. Using panel data across all 26 states from 1995 to 2011, we find evidence of a correlation between dispersion of violence and GDP to less urban areas, and ambiguous results regarding police concentration.