The J-curve dynamics of U.S. bilateral trade

Three earlier studies examined the impact of dollar depreciation on bilateral trade between the United States and her six largest trading partners. They used different methodologies that resulted in different outcomes. In this paper we consider 18 major trading partners of the United States and employ a relatively new method to investigate the short-run as well as the long-run response of the bilateral trade balance to currency depreciation. While as with previous research we are unable to discover any J-curve pattern in the short run, in the long run real depreciation of the dollar has favorable effects on the U.S. trade balance in most cases. Copyright Academy of Economics and Finance 2004