The long march of China and India to prosperity : the progress so far and some constraints

The economic performance of the worlds two most populous countries China and India - in recent decades has transformed their own economies, as well the world economy, in a manner that is unprecedented. Their economic growth has helped lift millions of people out of dire poverty already and, if it can sustain itself, rapid economic growth will help improve the living standards of many more people both within these countries and elsewhere around the world. The factors and forces underlying these two countries economic performance have been the subject of many studies. The question whether the recent fast pace of economic growth can sustain itself has perhaps not received quite as much attention. This article starts by exploring analytically the development experiences and achievements of China and India since the late 1970s and early 1990s respectively. It then addresses the issue of longer term sustainability of the two economies march to prosperity via economic growth and transformation. Any study involving the future is, by the very nature of the exercise, somewhat speculative, and the current discourse is no exception. It uses the analytics, mainly of economics, to understand the processes of growth experienced by China and India and to prognosticate how these processes might play out for the two countries over the longer term.