The Market for Motion Pictures: Rank, Revenue, and Survival.

Every motion picture is an innovation that competes for theater screens and audiences during its brief life against a changing array of imperfect substitutes. The authors analyze a large sample of motion pictures as an evolving rank tournament of survival and death. The results indicate that the failure rate of motion pictures is time-dependent and survival time is strongly related to the number of initial bookings. Weekly box office revenue is highly convex in rank, which is consistent with S. Rosen's (1981) superstar phenomenon. The authors' results have implications for motion picture licensing arrangements, which have been severely restricted by U.S. court decisions. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.