The medium of contingency : an inverse view of the market

XV, 414 S.

Machine generated contents note:Preface -- Introduction -- 0.1 Derivative Valuation Theory vs. Derivative Pricing Technology -- 0.2 Implied Volatility vs. Real Volatility -- 0.3 Formal Reality vs. Physical Reality -- I The Matter -- 1 The End of Probability -- 1.1 The Void of Possibilities -- 1.2 A New Matter -- 1.3 The Infinity of Markets -- 1.4 The End of Statistics -- 2 The Vision Ahead -- 2.1 Regime-Switching Model -- 2.2 Recalibration -- 2.3 Is Probability Necessary? -- 2.4 Price and Probability -- 2.5 A New Metaphysics -- 2.6 Absolute Contingency -- 2.7 The Market as an Opportunity for Speculative Thought -- 2.8 The Market as the Conversion of the Image of Thought -- 2.9 Ascending to the Metalogical Level -- 3 Introducing the Market -- 3.1 The Unexchangeable Place of Exchange -- 3.1.1 The market as a continual event -- 3.1.2 The market as quantitative history -- 3.1.3 The intensive nontemporal price process -- 3.1.4 The continuity of the discontinuity -- 3.1.5 The matter beyond antifragility -- 3.2 The Medium of Contingency -- 3.2.1 The technology of the future -- 3.2.2 The book behind the market -- 3.3 Pricing vs. Valuation -- 3.3.1 The surface of the market -- 3.3.2 The smile problem -- 3.3.3 The absolute local -- 3.3.4 In the middle of the event -- 4 The Thought Behind -- 4.1 Two Sides of Writing -- 4.2 Genesis of Price vs. Generation of Number -- 4.3 The Market as Geometry -- 4.4 State vs. Mark -- 4.5 Probability as an Internal Episode -- 4.6 The Alternative Axiomatic System of Shafer and Vovk -- 4.7 Extensive Difference vs. Intensive Difference -- II The Matter in Brownian Motion -- 5 From Throwing the Dice to Grasping Brownian Motion -- 5.1 The Meaning of Probability -- 5.1.1 The Law of Large Numbers -- 5.1.2 Intuition -- 5.1.3 Matter -- 5.1.4 Reality -- 5.1.5 Tense -- 5.2 Changing the Meaning of Matter -- 5.2.1 Money -- 5.2.2 Time is not money -- 5.2.3 Money is place -- 5.3 Changing the Meaning of Reality -- 5.3.1 Ex-ante vs. ex-post -- 5.3.2 Brownian motion -- 6 From the Marvel of Brownian Motion to the Reality of the Market -- 6.1 The Technology of the Market -- 6.2 The Reality of the Market -- 6.3 The Market as an Inverted Order of Thought -- III The Matter in Contingency -- 7 The Paper and the Tree -- 7.1 The Market and Time -- 7.1.1 Contingency, writing and exchanging -- 7.1.2 Price and time -- 7.1.3 Price and the event -- 7.1.4 Price and the trace -- 7.2 From the Mark to the Whole Market -- 7.2.1 Contingent payoff vs. contingent claim (first take) -- 7.2.2 The invention of writing (first take) -- 7.2.3 The exchange and the abyss -- 8 Archaeology of the Multiple -- 8.1 To Be vs. Can Be -- 8.1.1 Identification and transition -- 8.1.2 The danger of abstraction and the suspension of possibility -- 8.1.3 0 and 1 -- 8.1.4 The real future -- 8.2 Chrono-logic -- 8.2.1 Probability as an integral -- 8.2.2 Chronology as a simulation of chrono-logic -- 8.3 Accounting for the Event -- 8.3.1 Money and the other face of the event -- 8.3.2 The accident of time and the necessity of work -- 8.3.3 An event that is not but that remains -- 8.3.4 Writing the event -- 9 Archaelogy of the Exchange -- 9.1 All of the Market! -- 9.1.1 Impossible exchange, necessary exchange -- 9.1.2 The inverse view -- 9.2 Statistics as a Proto-market -- 9.2.1 Abstraction and the precision of the present state -- 9.2.2 The immanence of statistics and the immanence of the paper -- 9.2.3 The matter in statistics -- 9.3 The Matter in the Exchange -- 9.3.1 The non-individual singular -- 9.3.2 Single-case statistics -- 9.3.3 Contingency of the strike -- 10 Matter and Geometry -- 10.1 The Singularity of Writing -- 10.2 The Singularity of the Exchange -- IV The Market of Contingent Claims (or the Matter in Black- -- Scholes-Merton) -- 11 Towards a Contemporary Theory of the Market -- 11.1 The Stochastic Narrative of the Market -- 11.1.1 Definite states -- 11.1.2 Derivatives prices as states -- 11.1.3 Variations on lottery value and random price -- 11.1.4 The curse of the derivative value -- 11.2 The Trading Narrative of the Market -- 11.2.1 Can the derivative trade independently? -- 12 Incomplete Markets -- 12.1 Complete vs. Incomplete Markets -- 12.2 Martingale Measure of the Market -- 12.3 Equivocation -- 12.4 Incomplete Market when the market Is All There Is -- 13 The Central Knot -- 13.1 Contingent Payoff vs. Contingent Claim -- 13.2 Probabilistic Exit -- 13.3 The Alternative Exit -- 13.3.1 Differentiating the form -- 13.4 The Invention of Writing -- 13.5 Genesis -- 13.5.1 That they don't exist -- 14 The Hard Problem -- 14.1 The Ultimate Probability Spot -- 14.2 The Presentation of the Contingent Payoffs -- 14.3 The Lure of Theory -- 14.4 The Semantic Theory of the Market -- 15 The Book of the Market -- 15.1 Formalism and Meta-formalism -- 15.1.1 The instant of the formalism and the instant of the market -- 15.1.2 The infinity of the option price and the infinity of matter -- 15.1.3 Formal deduction of matter -- 15.1.4 A new book for a new reality -- 15.2 The Book of Genesis -- 15.2.1 Only the book can write history -- 15.2.2 One book instead of two theories -- 15.2.3 Only the book can bind the void -- 15.2.4 Only the book can settle the succession -- 15.2.5 Contemporary art -- 15.2.6 An ontology made of paper -- 15.3 The Trading Force -- 15.4 Coda -- 16 Denouement: The theory after the Two Narratives -- Conclusion -- 17 Appendix 1: Regime-Switching Model 669 -- 17.1 A Meta-contextual Pricing Tool -- 17.2 Recalibration -- 18 Append.

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