The Modi ed R a Robust Measure of Association for Time Series

Since times of Yule (1926), it is known that correlation between two time series can produce spurious results. Granger and Newbold (1974) see the roots of spurious correlation in non-stationarity of the time series. However the study of Granger, Hyung and Jeon (2001) prove that spurious correlation also exists in stationary time series. These facts make the correlation coefficient an unreliable measure of association. This paper proposes ‘Modified R’ as an alternate measure of association for the time series. The Modified R is robust to the type of stationarity and type of deterministic part in the time series. The performance Modified R is illustrated via extensive Monte Carlo Experiments.