The Nexus between Product Sophistication and Export Survival : Evidence from China

This paper employs the survival method to investigate the conditions of export survival using Chinese bilateral export data at the 6-digit HS level over the period 2002-2019. While aggregated export flows are highly persistent, export spells defined by product-destination portfolio are pretty dynamic and short-lived: the median duration is only two years, and more than 70% of the spells survive no more than five years. This paper finds that product sophistication is a crucial determinant of export survival. Specifically, product sophistication is significantly and negatively correlated with the hazard rate of export relationship, which remains consistent with a series of robustness checks