The order of integration for quarterly macroeconomic time series: A simple testing strategy

An empirical example and a simulation study show that much more attention should be devoted to the practical issue of selecting the maximum admissible order of integration for quarterly macroeconomic time series. In fact, it is shown that when that order is too high, one may get (spurious) evidence for an excessive number of unit roots, resulting in an overdifferenced series. Besides introducing a simple and intuitive definition for the order of integration of quarterly time series, this paper also presents a simple testing strategy to determine that order for the case of macroeconomic data. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2003