The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting
edited by Daniel Williams, Thad Calabrese
1. Introduction- Daniel W. Williams and Thad Calabrese -- Part I: International and National -- 2. Macroeconomic Theory & Forecasting- Gerald D. Cohen -- 3. Evaluation of Budget Forecasts- Neil R. Ericcson and Andrew B. Martinez -- 4. Budget Preparation and Forecasting in the Federal Republic of Germany- Dörte Busch and Wolfgang Strehl -- 5. Revenue Forecasting in Low-Income and Developing Countries: Biases and Potential Remedies- Marco Cangiano and Rahul Pathak -- 6. The Reliability of Long-Run Budget Projections- Rudolph Penner -- 7. CBO Updated Forecasts: Do a Few Months Matter?- James W. Douglas and Ringa Raudla -- Part II: State and Local -- 8. State Revenue Forecasting Practices: Accuracy, Transparency, and Political Participation- Emily Franklin, Carolyn Bourdeaux, and Alex Hathaway -- 9. Modeling and Forecasting State Tax Revenue since the Great Recession- Melissa McShea and Joseph Cordes -- 10. Bias Associated with Centrally Budgeted Expenditure Forecasts- Thad Calabrese and Daniel W. Williams -- 11. Excessive Revenue Underforecasting: Evidence and Implications from New York City’s Property Tax- Geoffrey Propheter -- 12. Small Local Government Revenue Forecasting- Vincent Reitano -- 13. Current Midyear Municipal Budget Forecast Accuracy- Daniel W. Williams and Thad Calabrese -- Part III: Subject Matter Specialties -- 14. Using Fiscal Indicator Systems to Predict Municipal Bankruptcies- Jonathan B. Justice, Marc Fudge, Helisse Levine, David D. Bird, and Muhammad Naveed Iftikhar -- 15. School District Enrollment Projections and Budget Forecasting- Peter Jones, Carl Rakow, and Vincent Reitano -- 16. Budget Uncertainty and the Quality of Nonprofit Charter School Enrollment Projections- Todd L. Ely -- 17. Forecasting for Prisons and Jails- Bruce D. McDonald III, J. Winn Decker, and Mathew Hunt -- 18. Government and Nonprofit Personnel Forecasting- Vincent Reitano -- 19. Forecast Bias and Capital Reserves Accumulation- Vincent Reitano, Peter Jones, Nathan Barrett, and Jacob Fowles -- 20. Consensus Forecasting- J. Winn Decker and Bruce D. McDonald III -- 21. Ensemble Forecasting- Kenneth Kriz -- Part IV: Conclusion -- 22. Conclusion- Daniel W. Williams and Thad Calabrese
