The predictive role of counterfactuals

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

MoreLess

Year of publication:	2012-07
Authors:	Tillio, Alfredo Di ; Gilboa, Itzhak ; Samuelson, Larry
Institutions:	HAL
Subject:	induction \| counterfactuals \| prediction

More details

Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Post-Print.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00712888 Published, Theory and Decision, 2012, 73, 1, NC
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010898891