The Probability of Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgage Termination

This paper analyzes mortgage terminations using a national individual loan data set for the 1986 to 1992 period. The standard option choice-theoretic framework is supplemented with variables to proxy for non-option related termination determinants. Separate multinomial logit models are estimated for three mortgage types: 30 year FRMs, 15 year FRMs, and 30 year ARMs. The results indicate substantial differences in the response of the mortgage types to variables included in the model. FRM15 prepayments are the most responsive to prepayment option values; FRM30 prepayments are less responsive to option values and are driven by local area housing market and economic conditions; ARM prepayment rates are higher but default rates are lower relative to the FRMs. A noteworthy finding is that teaser discounts reduce the likelihood of ARM defaults