The Program-to-Campaign Linkage : Party Organization and Ideological Inconsistency During Election Campaigns

What determines party strategies in election campaigns? In this paper, I highlight a novel aspect to the party behavior literature pertaining to the connection between election programs and actual campaign statements issued by party elites in the media. I argue that party leaders might feel the need to tune their rhetoric and stances during campaigns and thus deviate from their party's election programs. Nonetheless, their ability to conduct ad-hoc adaptations is limited. The theory I propose posits that two features of party organizations will determine if party leaders can engage in short-term inconsistencies. First, membership-dominated parties will be less likely to be inconsistent because their leaders will fear alienating (the strong) party members and getting punished as a result. Second, parties with strong societal integration—those that maintain strong ties with society and an extensive network of local branches—are more likely to indulge in ideological inconsistency because they establish close bonds with voters based on problem-solving rather than on broad ideological ideals. I test these dynamics in 14 European democracies between 1972 and 2017 and find strong empirical support. The findings show that complex party organizations and strong connections with normal citizens influence parties' short-term strategies during election campaigns