THE RAISING LEVELS OF THE OCEANS AS THE CAUSATIVE AGENT OF FORCED MIGRATION. CURRENT STATUS AND FORECAST

More than two decades of debate over sea level rise associated with climate change has not bring so far any consensus. Equally dificult is to determine potential consequences of this process, among which we can mention deterritorialization of the country, economic losses amounting to trillions of dollars, demographic phenomena such as increased mortality and internal displacement or transnational forced migrations, and even armed conflicts caused by food shortages and increasing competition for territory. Rising sea level, such as other global problems, may directly affect all categories of human security mentioned in the UNDP Human Development Report published in 1994. Among highly significant risks we can mention a potential decline in global food security, caused by rising temperature of the oceans and the destruction of coral reefs. The impact of environmental change on the dynamics of human mobility is widely analyzed problem within the field of forced migration and IDPs studies. It is a good illustraton of the most fundamental cause of forced migration, which seems to be decrease of individual and community security below the level provide the basic existential needs and benefits from inhabited territory. The subject of my discussion is both the analysis of already observed climate migrations and a breief description of the future potential of this phenomenon. The article presents the statistics on current and projected scale of sea level rise and its impact to the most vulnerable regions of the world (Bangladesh, Nigeria, China, microstates in Ocenia). Stressing the importance of objective demographic parameters (such as population increase and high population density in coastal regions) I draw attention to the possible scenarios, which are important in the context of alarming predictions of IPCC.