The "Rajan hypothesis": A counter-factual experiment

We integrate a centralized wage bargaining process into an otherwise standard DSGE model with a financial accelerator to simulate distributional shocks in the presence of financial instability. Our framework provides a counterfactual analysis of the effects of the observed decrease in the labor share when no concomitant rise in households' credit offsets the adverse effect on consumption. The result is a prolonged under-consumption recession that outweighs the initial boost in investment.