The Random Character of Merger Activity

Using annual data on U.S. mergers from 1895-1979, we are not able to reject the hypothesis that merger levels are characterized by a white-noise process or by a stable first-order autoregressive scheme. This result contrasts with the common perception that mergers occur in "waves." Our results are derived from a relatively small number of observations in some subperiods, which weakens the power of our tests, but the results are based on the same data from which the existence of waves has been formed.