The rebound effect in road transport : a meta-analysis of empirical studies

The rebound effect is the phenomenon underlying the disproportionality between energy efficiency improvements and observed energy savings. This paper presents a meta-analysis of 76 primary studies and 1138 estimates of the direct rebound effect in road transport to synthesise past work and inform ongoing discussions about the determinants and magnitude of the rebound effect. The magnitude of rebound effect estimates varies with the time horizon considered. On average, the direct rebound effect is around 12% in the short run and 32% in the long run. Indirect and macroeconomic effects would come on top of these estimates. Heterogeneity in rebound effect estimates can mainly be explained by variation in the time horizon considered, the elasticity measure used and the econometric approach employed in primary studies, and by macro-level economic factors, such as real income and gasoline prices. In addition to identifying the factors responsible for the variation in rebound effect estimates, the meta-regression model developed in this paper can serve as a relevant tool to assist policy analysis in contexts where rebound effect estimates are missing.