The Relationship Between Military Spending and Black Market Premium in Greece: An ARDL Approach

Recently, there are a few empirical studies relating to the military spending and other macro variables such as real exchange rate, unemployment rates, investment rates, budget, and inflation rates. We examine the relationship between military spending and black market premium, in the Greece using the autoregressive distributed lag approach for the time period 1954–1998. Our results implied that higher military spending leads to higher black market premium and we concluded that while military spending does not Granger cause black market premium in the short run, black market premium does Granger cause military spending in the short run. When we examine the long-run results, ELC model implies that almost 30 % of the disequilibrium of the previous year’s shocks adjusts back to the long run equilibrium. Copyright Springer-Verlag Wien 2012