The reversal of the relation between economic growth and health progress: Sweden in the 19th and 20th centuries

Health progress, as measured by the decline in mortality rates and the increase in life expectancy, is usuallyconceived as related to economic growth, especially in the long run. In this investigation it is shown thateconomic growth is positively associated with health progress in Sweden throughout the 19th century.However, the relation becomes weaker as time passes and is completely reversed in the second half of the20th century, when economic growth negatively affects health progress. The effect of the economy onhealth occurs mostly at lag zero in the 19th century and is lagged up to two years in the 20th. No evidence isfound for economic effects on mortality at greater lags. These findings are shown to be robustly consistentacross a variety of statistical procedures, including linear regression, spectral analysis, cross-correlation,and lag regression models. Models using inflation and unemployment as economic indicators reveal similarresults. Evidence for reverse effects of health progress on economic growth is weak, and unobservable inthe second half of the 20th century.