The risk of currency crisis in the period of participating in exchange rate mechanism ERM II

In the course of exchange rate development history of the countries taking part and evaluated in ERM or ERM II before they entered the euro-area there was no depreciating evolution with a trend to currency crisis at all. Fundamental indicators of these economies, partly owing to the compliance with other Maastricht criteria, do not induce devaluation expectancions of investors. However, there is a danger in two other lines. Firstly there is the possibility of so called pure contagion, secondly there are specifics connected directly with taking part in ERM II (wrong configuration of the central parity, appreciating exchange rate overshooting or advancing the date of the euro conversion). The second generation models of currency crisis admits the risk of crisis even without an outstanding decline of fundamental indicators. Taking part of exchange rate in ERM II is a suitable application of the model. Under specific conditions, when taking part in ERM II should trend to the compliance with the exchange rate convergency criterion at the same time, there is a small expectancy of a speculative attack success.