The role of disqualification factors and double counting in estimating the market potential for consumer services

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review issues pertaining to estimating market potential for consumer services which may cause underestimates of market potential and result in inappropriate marketing strategies. Particular attention is paid to the issue of double counting disqualified individuals. Design/methodology/approach – The process of estimating market potential for consumer services is described. Attention is paid to the role of factors that disqualify groups of individuals from inclusion in the relevant market and the problem of double counting disqualified individuals. Secondary data for enlistees in the United States Army are used to illustrate the process. Findings – The United States Army's estimate of its market potential was approximately twice as large as previous estimates when the double‐counting of disqualified individuals was eliminated. Research implications/limitations – This is the first study appearing in the academic literature that directly addresses the issue of double‐counting disqualified individuals when estimating market potential. It is intended to raise awareness of the issue and lead to a more thorough coverage of the topic in marketing textbooks and other practitioner‐related materials. Practical implications – The process of estimating market potential applies to a broad range of service industries in which the double counting of disqualified individuals is an important issue. More accurate estimates of market potential can lead to more effective marketing strategies and improved allocation of marketing resources. Originality/value – A review of the literature indicates that, surprisingly, no previous studies have addressed these important issues. This article helps to fill that void.