The Role of Three Key Emitters in Meeting Minimal Paris Agreement Emissions Targets in a Global Energy and Trade Model

Meeting net-zero emissions targets requires major and ongoing reductions in the use of fossil fuels. We focus on the role of three key emitters in a large dimensional, 30 country/region energy and trade model, designated as GTAP-R, to meet minimal Paris Agreement targets, illustrating the path in emissions reduction and the shift in energy mix from coal, oil and gas to renewables. The model incorporates changes in energy efficiency, energy intensity, increases in the demand for renewables and the use of a price on carbon to reach a minimal Paris target, comparing emissions (as a result of fossil fuel consumption only) along comparable transition pathways SSP2-RCP4.5 (Base Case) to (better than) SSP1-RCP2.6. Results show that the use of fossil fuels needs to be reduced substantially by 2050, for coal alone by 90–100% in India, China and the USA, compared to 2019, with a sustained transition to renewable energy. Globally, model results show reductions in fossil fuel carbon emissions overall must decrease by at least 3% per year, on average, to meet (or exceed) a minimal Paris Agreement target of less than 2oC warming and domestic coal consumption must fall continuously from 2022 forward. As an addendum to the main results, we also show that limited carbon sequestration from forestry and land use change can help generate a near global net zero model outcome in 2050, albeit with marked uncertainty. Overall, the results indicate the need to dramatically reduce fossil fuel consumption (especially coal), showing the feasibility of meeting a better than SSP1-RCP2.6 emissions reduction target with increases in renewable energy, while still allowing for ‘green growth’ or increases in GDP