The Sochi agreement and the interests of guarantor states : examining the aims and challenges of sustaining the deal

Russia has opted to put pressure on Turkey regarding the future of Idlib, holding it largely responsible for untangling the region's complex and interlocking issues. By striking a deal in Sochi in September 2018, Russia delayed the decision to launch a military offensive that would have negatively affected its relationship with Turkey and thwarted its envisioned solution to the Syrian conflict through the Astana process and the constitutional committee. The Sochi Agreement has represented an area of consensus among a number of states. The United States' main interest in the deal is disrupting the growing Russian influence over the Idlib governorate. If matters were to be resolved swiftly in Idlib, it would allow Russia more room to mobilize its efforts towards the sphere of American influence east of the Euphrates. Russia has secured a new bargaining chip vis-à-vis the European Union, which has become increasingly concerned that a military operation in Idlib would lead to the outflow of hundreds of thousands of refugees, many of whom would make their way towards EU countries. Russia insists on linking the issue of refugees with that of reconstruction, an attempt to goad the EU into contributing to the reconstruction under the pretext of supplying housing for returnees.