The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance : It's Size and Determinants

This paper aims to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies, and identify the determinants of the bilateral trade deficit. We take advantage of detailed Chinese Customs data at the commodity level. Our calculated U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995, compared to the official range of $8 billion to $30 billion, and $9 billion to $34 billion, respectively. The widening of the U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected various factors, including: (i) macroeconomic forces in the U.S. and China moving in opposite directions, causing their respective overall trade balance to move in opposite directions; and (ii) the accelerated relocation of production of U.S. imports from East Asia to China