The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting
Surveys improve forecasting performance by adding explanatory power to a model which is based on only past values of manufacturing growth. The issue addressed in this paper is whether surveys of production expectations, when added to equations that contain lagged values of a headline index pertaining to the real economy, improve forecasting performance. If so, it may be better for researchers to use not just the headline index, but production expectations or the Economic Sentiment Indicator if they wish to better predict manufacturing growth.
Year of publication: |
2010
|
---|---|
Authors: | Klein, Lawrence R. ; Özmucur, Süleyman |
Published in: |
Economic Modelling. - Elsevier, ISSN 0264-9993. - Vol. 27.2010, 6, p. 1453-1462
|
Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Subject: | Surveys Forecasting Evaluation European Union |
Saved in:
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