The use of longitudinal spatial analyses of informal settlements in urban development planning

Informal settlements are home to a substantial, and growing, proportion of the urban population of developing cities. In the majority of these countries, it is recognised that the only way of improving the quality of life of residents in these areas is through a process of in situ upgrading. However, the focus of this upgrading tends to be directed at the level of the individual settlement; rarely is the impact on the wider metropolitan area considered. This article addresses that wider perspective. It describes a longitudinal study of informal settlements in Cape Town over a five-year period. This study showed that informal settlements in the city will grow faster than new housing can be provided, thereby necessitating a radical shift in the current housing policy. The study then demonstrated that it is possible to determine discernible trends in the growth pattern of informal settlements, which will enable such settlements to be brought into the integrated development planning process for the city.