The Value of Failure : The Effect of an Expired REDD+ Conservation Program on Residents’ Willingness for Future Participation

Conservation projects have a lifecycle; they are born, they grow, and theycan die. However, researchers know little about how the legacy of a projectthat failed to deliver upon its promised goals affects former participants’willingness to participate in future conservation programming. We utilize anatural experiment - an expiration of a Reduced Emissions from Deforestationand Land Degradation (REDD+) readiness project in Pemba Zanzibar– to explore whether and how exposure to REDD+ has influenced residents’willingness to participate in a proposed future payment for ecosystem initiative(PES). We develop a simple causal model and analyze willingnessto accept data from treated and non-treated wards and show how exposureto REDD+ affected former participants’ willingness to participate in futurePES schemes and how this is moderated by factors shown in previous studiesto be key indicators of uptake. Contrary to our expectations, we find thatexposure to REDD+ is associated with fewer protest bids and higher levelsof expected future participation. We find strong evidence that use-values,wealth, loss aversion, environmental attitudes, and social pressure mediatethis effect. We discuss these findings concerning Pemba and end with suggestionsfor conservationists establishing programs with uncertain futures