The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

The joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during two consecutive quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated as predictors of cyclical downturns in the economy using the prequential approach of Dawid (1984) and the skill score decomposition of Murphy (1988).

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Year of publication:	2007
Authors:	Lahiri, Kajal ; Wang, J. George
Published in:	Applied Economics Letters. - Taylor & Francis Journals, ISSN 1350-4851. - Vol. 14.2007, 1, p. 11-14
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis Journals

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Extent:	text/html
Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005435141