The "Walters Critique" of the EMS--A Case of Inconsistent Expectations?

Alan Walters has suggested that the European Monetary System will prove dynamically unstable when capital controls are removed. The argument is analyzed within a model where overlapping contracts generate price inertia. In this context, it is found that the short-run effects predicted by Walters only arise when the credibility of the peg differs as between the labor and financial markets: but even if such a difference exists, the system is stable in the long run. Copyright 1991 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester