Time Series Analysis of Deregulatory Dynamics and Technical Efficiency: The Case of the U.S. Airline Industry.

As markets worldwide become less regulated, it becomes increasingly possible and timely to establish the presence of an empirical relationship between technical efficiency and market forces compelling agents to economize. This article, taking an innovative approach to test the hypothesis that competitive pressure enhances efficiency, constructs a methodology to examine time series of technical efficiency indices for cointegration and convergence. A panel of U.S. airlines, observed quarterly between 1970 and 1990, is used as a case study. Cointegration results are suggestive of long-run relationships between carriers; furthermore, convergence tests document less dispersion in firm performance over time. Copyright 2000 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.