Time Series Analysis of Macroeconomic Conditions in Open Economies

Three macroeconomic issues are examined in separate self-contained studies. The novelty is in the combination of time domain time series methods with bootstrap techniques. The combined technique is here used to analyze issues where accuracy in inference, rather than the lack of theory, has increasingly become the central concern. The first study tests the business cycle theory with application of an enhanced ADF test on the U.S. time series of real GNP (Bootstrapping for Unit Roots). The second study tests for IS-LM conditions in the U.S. during the post-Bretton Woods era by combining the Johansen's approach to cointegration with bootstrap algorithms (A Bootstrap Evaluation of Cointegration). The third study seeks to explain the observed persistence in the Bolivian dollarization process where model parameters of the Johansen’s approach to cointegration are also evaluated via a nonparametric bootstrap.