Time Series Evidence on the Employment Effect of Minimum Wages in Brazil

The impact of minimum wages on the labour market has been a recurrent issue in the theoretical and empirical literature [e.g., Cubitt and Heap (1999), Dickens et al. (1998), Waltman et al. (1998), and Dolado et al. (1996)]. There are two clear and divergent views on the normative impact of minimum wages on labour markets in developing economies. The advocate view holds that minimum wages redistribute resources in a welfare enhancing way, and as such have the potential to reduce poverty, enhance productivity, and foster economic growth. The distortionist view suggests that minimum wage interventions misallocate labour, waste resources through rent-seeking, impair adjustment to economic shocks, deter investment and reduce growth rates with the effect of depressing wages where most of the poor are found - i.e., in the urban informal sector and in the rural sector [Freeman (1994)]. In this paper, we present estimates on the impact of the minimum wage on the Brazilian labour markets using time series data for the period between 1982 to 1999. We undertake this task by means of cointegration analysis based on methods recently proposed by Inder (1995) and Johansen (1988), and tests of super-exogeneity for the minimum wage [Ericsson and Irons (1995)]