Too many, too fast? Dynamics of net migration in OECD, 1984-2001

A dynamic model of migration developed by Hatton (1995) has been applied to the panel of 23 OECD countries observed during 1984-2001. Migration flows have been found to have a tendency to overreact to changes in economic conditions. Thus, simulations have shown that in the Anglo-American group of countries (Australia, Canada, Ireland, UK and USA) a given relative improvement in economic circumstances which brings an extra 0.840 immigrants per 1000 population per year (334 800 in total) in the short run, brings somewhat fewer (288 700 in total) in the long-run.