Tourism in a transforming world economy : How can small nations prepare for the changes that lie ahead?

Purpose – As the world is being rapidly reshaped by the accelerating pace of scientific and technological advance, demographic trends, the rise of new centres of global manufacturing, surging demand for resources, rapid shifts in the pattern of environmental impacts, changes in the nature of risk, political and economic influence, competition and conflict, and the geopolitical balance of power, and potential global threats such as climate change, this conceptual paper aims to examine what impact some of these changes may have on developing nations that are highly dependent on the tourism sector, and what implications this may have for the tourism industry in general. Design/methodology/approach – The paper seeks to examine what impact what some of these changes may have on developing nations that are highly dependent on the tourism sector, and what implications this may have for the tourism industry in general. Findings – Based on the pattern of growth and emerging new world, it appears that the tourism industry will undergo a significant transformation over the next several decades as a result of current social, economic, technological and environmental changes, which raises important questions as to how the small nations can plan and prepare for these developments. Practical implications – While we are living in turbulent times, and it seems likely that times of even more profound change lie ahead, there are ways in which even the smallest and poorest developing countries can increase their resilience, support their most important economic sectors, which in many cases now is their tourism industry, and protect their people. One of the most important steps is policy integration, which would allow multiple objectives to be met as efficiently and economically as possible. Originality/value – A number of small, developing nations are now heavily dependent on the tourism industry. This paper suggests that integrated planning could help in this regard by assisting the small developing nations to solve a number of impediments at the same time, and thereby increasing their resilience.