Toward Carbon Peaking and Neutralization : The Heterogeneous Stochastic Convergence of Co2 Emissions and the Role of Digital Inclusive Finance

This article explores the dynamic distribution of city-level CO2 emissions in China from the national and regional perspectives. To highlight this issue, we propose a q-σ stochastic convergence model to checkout the heterogeneous convergence trend of carbon emissions at different quantiles. A panel time-varying quantile regression model with a factor structure is introduced to determine the absolute and conditional q-β stochastic convergence of CO2 emissions and to examine the dynamic influence of digital inclusive finance on the convergence of carbon emissions. The results show that CO2 emissions exhibit a spatially imbalanced distribution pattern of being low in the east and high in the west. Except for the central region, CO2 emissions of the whole country and the eastern and western regions display a dynamic q-σ convergence at different quantiles. For both national and regional CO2 emissions, there is absolute q-β convergence, which becomes more pronounced as the quantile increases. However, CO2 emissions in the country and other areas do not exhibit conditional q-β convergence, apart from Eastern China, where conditional q-β convergence exists at the middle and high quantiles. Additionally, the development of digital inclusive finance across the country and in Central and Western China generally facilitates carbon emission convergence. These findings have important implications for mitigating carbon pollution and achieving the dual carbon goals