Towards a climate-neutral and climate-resilient EU energy infrastructure : advice on scenario guidelines for trans-European networks for energy

Energy networks, such as gas pipelines, electricity grids and interconnections, are a core component of the energy system of the European Union (EU). They play a significant role in determining to what extent different energy sources can be transmitted and used across the EU, and, in the case of fossil energy sources, how much greenhouse gas emissions they generate. As energy supply and use are still responsible for 77% of the EU's total greenhouse gas emissions, the design and development of the EU's energy networks play a key role in driving the EU's transition towards a fossil-free energy infrastructure. Strategic, long-term planning for the development of cross-border energy infrastructure is particularly critical to reach the EU's 2050 climate neutrality target set out in the 2021 European Climate Law1. The 2013 EU Regulation on Trans-European Networks for Energy (TEN-E)2 provided a legal framework to support the development of cross-border energy infrastructure at the EU level and deliver an integrated and shock-resilient EU energy system. It mainly focused on improving energy network connection across the EU, and promoting cross-border interconnections and the integration of renewable energy in the system. To improve the coordination between these different objectives, the TEN-E Regulation was revised in 20223. In particular, the revised Regulation sets out new provisions aiming to ensure a development of the EU's gas and electricity networks that is in line with the objectives of the European Climate Law, as well as the energy efficiency first principle and the EU's 2030 targets for energy and climate. The revised Regulation also aims to enhance the resilience of the EU's energy infrastructure to the unavoidable impacts of climate change in Europe. To do so, the Regulation outlines a revised process for planning the development of the EU's gas and electricity networks with a ten-year horizon, the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP). This plan then forms the basis for selecting Projects of Common Interest (PCI), which are eligible for EU funding (5.84 billion euros between 2021 and 2027) and accelerated permitting procedures. The development of scenarios of future energy supply and demand is at the core of this planning process, as it enables the identification of infrastructure gaps. The European Networks of Transmission System Operators for Electricity and for Gas (ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G, respectively - hereafter 'ENTSOs') are responsible for developing such scenarios. These energy system scenarios are subsequently used to inform the cost-benefit analysis which is used for the selection of infrastructure development projects. The TEN-E Regulation requires the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) to develop framework guidelines on scenarios for network development planning (hereafter Scenario Guidelines).