Towards smaller family size in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey: overall change over time or socio-economic compositional effect?

The whole region of the South and East Mediterranean exhibits a profound fertility transition with marked differences in the pace of fertility declines among the countries. The authors choose three representative countries: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey. Determinants of the propensity towards smaller family size are investigated as scrutinizing the development in the pattern of third births, which represents the critical step in the transitional process for these countries. The authors are particularly interested in verifying whether the decline of higher-order births is significantly driven by an overall societal change over time or by compositional change over different socio-economic segments of the female population. Evidence is found that overall societal changes have mainly driven the decline in large family size, though, to a much lesser extent, compositional changes are important too.