Tracking the Dynamics and Allocating Tests for COVID-19 in Real-Time : An Acceleration Index with an Application to French Age Groups and Départements

An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of the COVID-19 iin real-time. Using French data on confirmed cases and tests for the period following the first lock-down - from May 13, 2020, onwards - our acceleration index shows that the ongoing pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers the fact that the pandemic acceleration has been stronger than national average for the [59 − 68] and [69 − 78] age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19 − 28] age group is the lowest and is about half that of the [69 − 78], as of October 25. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French départements, based on both the acceleration of the pandemic and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs significantly from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France enters a secondlock-down period with indeterminate duration