Trade Balance and Exchange-Rate for a Small Open Economy During the EMS: The Hellinic Case 1983:1-1995:12

We are interested on assessing the effectiveness of the Bank of Greece (BoG) exchange rate policy, to achieve the objective of adjusting balance of payments des–equilibrium, during the period 1983:1–1995:12. The traditional theory of the balance of payments adjustment process through exchange rate changes is used for this purpose. We found evidence, first, about the doubtful effectiveness of this policy due to the marginal verification of the critical elasticities condition; second, about the success of the exchange rate policy in the short–run, since the monthly data of bilateral exchange rates (USD, DEM, ITL, FRF, GBP, JPY) of the Hellenic Drachma (GRD) Granger cause the respective trade balances; third, about the significant co–movement in the series which in the long–run, are driven by the same stochastic trend. We are much aware of the tentative nature of these conclusions. However, our findings suggest that the loss of the exchange rate policy was costly in the case of Hellas because an efficient policy sacrificed by the BoG to the European Central Bank (ECB).