Trade intensity in the Russian stock market:dynamics, distribution and determinants

We investigate the distribution and evolution of intertrade durations for frequently traded stocks at the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. We use a flexible econometric model based on ARMA and GARCH which, when coupled with a certain class of distributions that allow for skewness and slim-tailedness, adequately captures the characteristics of conditional distribution of durations for Russian stocks, and is able to generate high quality density forecasts. We also analyze what factors determine the dynamics of logdurations and in which way. The results in particular indicate that the Russian market is characterized by aggressive informed traders and timid liquidity traders, and that the participants react evenly to upward and downward short-run price trends.