Trade openness, real exchange rates and job reallocation: evidence from Belgium

This paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate movements on job reallocation at the industry level. The analysis focuses on the manufacturing sector of Belgium, using data for 82 NACE 3-digit industries, over the time span 1996–2002. I find that real exchange rate changes do have a significant impact on job flows, and that this impact is magnified by increasing levels of trade exposure. In particular, a real appreciation is found to lower net employment growth through higher job destruction, while job creation is not significantly affected. These results are in line with previous empirical evidence on the United States, and differ from earlier findings for France and Germany, where the adjustment to real exchange rate shocks has been found to occur mainly through the job creation margin. I suggest that these differences may be explained by the fact that Belgium is a small open economy. Copyright The Author(s) 2012